Investigating scientific methods for flood mitigation: Part 2

 In this two-part series—which has been produced with support from the Louise Behan Grant, an initiative of the World Federation of Science Journalists—RICHARD CHIROMBO analyses the potential strengths and weaknesses of existing scientific approaches to flood management and their impact on reducing flood-related damage in the Shire Valley.

Innovator Nankhumwa, who was born on January 1, 2000 and is an ICT student, said he decided to come up with his innovation because he has always believed that “youths are not leaders of tomorrow; rather, they are leaders of today”.

“This realisation was especially important because it is us, youths, who are being exposed to natural disasters more often than our parents. This means because we are facing problems today, we must be part of the solution now.

“Actually, the floods detector I am using is the third one. I first installed one in Namalaka area, Zomba, last year. It was stolen. We then installed another one in the river; it was stolen again. This is the third one,” Nankhumwa says, pointing at the device.

Basically, the device, which is fitted to a tree in Likangala River, has sensors, which are connected to a megaphone n alarm that is, itself, connected to a server at the University of Malawi (Unima)’s main campus in Zomba City. When water levels rise, the alarm sounds.

“We are now working on software that will enable us to alert community members through a short message service (SMS) tool in our quest to protect lives and property so that, in these times of storms and floods, people should not be living in fear,” Nankhumwa says.

By “us”, he is including Shadreck Kamwana, with whom he is working on an application they want to put on Playstore.

When we found him at Unima campus, he was busy observing data that was being produced by the server.

Readings on the display tablet indicated as follows:

 

Temperature: 25 degrees Celsius

Humidity: 27.80

Water [levels]: Normal

 

“This means the situation is, back at Likangala River, normal. There is no imminent threat of floods,” Kamwana, a bachelor of science student at Unima, says.

Kamwana says they have made inroads on the issue of utilising technology to predict the occurrence of floods and other natural phenomena, expressing hope that they expect to have a more vibrant and updated system within the next two years.

As for Nankhumwa, he is always looking forward to creating something big.

He says he is always motivated by a certificate of recognition for his work, which he displays in his house in Chizalo area, Zomba.

It reads: Certificate of Innovation Award: This certificate is proudly presented to Steward Nankhumwa. His overall aptitude for technological innovation has been recognised by organisations seeking to foster and support young talent in Malawi. Therefore, he is being recognised for his ingenuity, his ability to create practical technological solutions, and his potential to contribute to the technological advancement of his community and country. 22 March 2024. Life from the heart in memory of Kyle Hayhoe 2022.’

 

Shire Valley stakeholders’ disaster mitigation methods

Meanwhile, residents of the Shire Valley districts of Chikwawa and Nsanje, which are synonymous with natural disasters such as storm and cyclone-induced floods, do not have the luxury of flood alarm systems of the nature found in Likangala River.

Chikwawa District Disaster Management Officer Charity Machika says they try their best to alert community members to issues such as the possibility of floods.

“I think the alert systems are working well. If Chikwawa suffers from disasters, it is because of the terrain. Geographically, it is in a low-lying area and, as such, all the rains that fall upland, all the water that comes from other areas, rush to the Shire Valley. We also have the Shire River, which also carries all that water to the Shire Valley, thereby increasing the risk of flooding.

“There are also many rivers. The Shire River itself, which is Lake Malawi’s only outlet, is fed water by rivers in Mwanza District,” she explains.

She emphasises that they are ready to embrace innovation.

“For now, though, in terms of early warning systems, we depend on reports from the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services. When we get reports of, say, impending floods, we send warning messages to residents. We are also encouraging the adoption of [the concept of] Anticipatory Humanitarian Action.

“We have also relocated people. We relocated some people from Matsukambiya area in Ngabu to Kamseche, which is under Traditional Authority (TA) Makhuwira,” Machika points out, adding that they have metals that gauge the level of water in flood-prone rivers.

She, however, says because people have to physically check the metal bars placed in rivers, it becomes difficult for officers to check the readings when outdoor weather is adverse.

Her Nsanje District counterpart, Dan Mandala, echoes the sentiments that manual alert systems can be difficult to manage when the weather outside is adverse.

“[Like Chikwawa], Nsanje is located in a lowline area. What happens upland ends up in the Shire River,” Mandala explains.

In terms of scientific methods they are using, he cites river gauges, rain gauges, which they have planted in schools and other facilities, among other tools.

“We also depend on weekly and monthly forecasts from the Department of Climate Change and Citizenship Services. As you know, issues related to weather prediction are a shared responsibility.

“Of course, the tools we are using, notably river gauges, are old systems, such that it becomes difficult to physically check on them, say, in adverse weather conditions. By the time one goes to the place they are stationed to check on something, key indicators could have changed,” he says.

In terms of disaster mitigation methods, officials have relocated some community members from flood-prone areas to safe ones. For instance, some people were transferred from Makhanga area, which is under TA Mlolo, to areas under TA Mbenje.

Meanwhile, aware that they are the ones with most advanced equipment in the weather, climate and risk alert messages issuance system, the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services continues to work over time to ensure that Malawians and residents of Malawi are well fed with information.

Meteorologist Alick Chiba, who works in the National Meteorological Centre (NMC) at the department, says they are responsible for producing weather forecasts, issuing advisory alerts, among other services.

“Most weather systems are not visible. We, therefore, need machines to analyse things. We typically deal with models, which are local, regional and global ones. We also have a Flood Avoidance Model, which was developed under Sadc [Southern African Development Community].

“The good thing about local models like Cosmo is that you can, for example, make a three-day precipitation analysis. The local model uses real data while global models depend on satellite data. In other words, using global models to predict local weather is like using predictions to make predictions,” Chiba explains.

He is quick to say challenges they face include power outages, a problem they have addressed by using the solar energy system they received from the United Nations Development Programme sometime back.

The backup system became handy when Cyclone Jude made landfall in Malawi in March this year, when incessant rains culminated in a power outage at the department’s headquarters in Blantyre.

The use of a backup system meant chief meteorologist (communications) Hussein Milanzi continued his key work of ensuring that the Pama satellite data receiving system and the Cosmo model, which was adopted from Germany, were keeping the country updated on weather phenomena.

“We now have state-of-the-art equipment. The Cosmo model, for instance, is a seven-kilometre resolution model that enables us to differentiate weather [patterns] within two points,” Milanzi says.

In that well-conditioned room, he can monitor the WRF [Weather Research Forecast] Model, the Lightning Detection System, among others. In fact, there is a server that services two buoys that are stationed on Lake Malawi.

On her part, director for the department, Dr Lucy Mtilatila, says they ensure that—utilising data generated from their 120 automatic weather stations, two buoys on Lake Malawi and eight lightning sensors—they use social media tools such as Facebook, their website—which even has a map room where the user can create real-time maps on it, community radio stations, television stations, among other channels, they give the nation tailormade information when it matters the most.

“And, as a region, we usually meet and share information,” Mtilatila indicates.

She says this enables them to name cyclones and, when they loom, predict their path.

“Basically, cyclones are formed when the temperature in the Indian Ocean, which is the source of cyclones that, of late, have been reaching Malawi, reaches 27 degrees Celsius,” the director points out.

That is why cyclones no longer make landfall in Malawi while disguised as an invisible enemy; their path is clearly marked.

Investigating scientific methods for flood mitigation: Part 1

 In this two-part series—which has been produced with support from the Louise Behan Grant, an initiative of the World Federation of Science Journalists—RICHARD CHIROMBO analyses the potential strengths and weaknesses of existing scientific approaches to flood management and their impact on reducing flood-related damage in the Shire Valley.

Aged only 25, Steward Nankhumwa’s voice is already weighed down by painful memories.

The college student, who is based in Malawi’s old capital, Zomba, says he has had nightmares about floods, such that he decided to do something about the situation.

“In the past, storm and cyclone-induced floods were not occurring at the rate they are doing now. Not nowadays. We hear about storms and cyclones causing devastation in Malawi almost every year, which signals a problem,” Nankhumwa, who we found at his home, which is located along the floods-prone Likangala River, points out.

Even at his relatively young age, he is speaking from experience.

 

At the centre of the storm

Malawi has, somehow, become inundated with storm and cyclone-induced disasters in recent years.

In March 2008, Malawi had a close call with a cyclone, namely Jokwe, which brought heavy rains that were accompanied by strong winds. With speeds of up to 105 metres per hour, it especially decimated property in some parts of Mozambique, with Malawi receiving some of the heavy winds and rains that accompanied it, albeit without registering cases of property damage.

If anything, it is Cyclone Funso, which made landfall in Malawi in January 2012 and induced floods that caused power outages, that made Malawians aware of the risk at hand; that is, increased vulnerability to cyclones.

The natural phenomenon was particularly noticeable because it had been two years since the last cyclone, namely Gelane, had been recorded in the region.

And, after a relatively calm period, the expected also happened in 2019 when, in March, Tropical Cyclone Idai made landfall in the country. It induced heavy rains that were accompanied by heavy winds, culminating in landslides and, in some areas of the country, floods.

A month later, Cyclone Lorna hit, bringing winds that, in some cases, reached 130 kilometres per hour. Its defining features included flooding that culminated in damage to public roads, houses, crop fields. The floods also led to power outages and disrupted water supply systems, among other things.

Malawians, Nankhumwa inclusive, have also been witnesses to Tropical Storm Ana, which made landfall in the Southern African Development Community member state in January 2022 and affected some parts of central and southern Malawi.

As before, it left devastation in its wake, leaving 70-plus people dead, damaging crops, disrupting the provision of education services and leaving 945,728 people—especially those in the Shire Valley districts of Nsanje and Chikwawa, as well as other Southern Region districts of Phalombe, Mangochi and Mulanje—in dire need of relief items such as food and shelter.

In addition, Nankhumwa and many other Malawians have fond memories of Tropical Storm Ana, which impacted the country in January 2022, followed, in March of the same year, by Tropical Storm Ana, both of which brought heavy rains and strong winds that induced floods. Public facilities such as roads, houses, health centres, schools, among things, were destroyed.

Then, on March 11, 2023, Tropical Cyclone Freddy made landfall in Malawi—a country located in Southern Africa, east of Zambia, west and north of Mozambique—with a Post-Disaster Needs Assessment Report estimating that 225 people died, 109,625 hectares of crops for around 308,000 farming families getting washed away, with over 288,000 houses damaged and total damage and losses estimated at $220.2 million.

Freddy killed more than 225 people in Malawi and left thousands of homes in ruins. Many areas were flooded, sparking landslides and other calamities.

It prompted President Lazarus Chakwera to declare a state of disaster.

In December 2024, Malawi became the victim of Cyclone Chido, which the Department of Disaster Management Affairs (Dodma) indicated affected 46, 017 people in 23 districts, with 13 people dying, 29 sustaining injuries and members of 227 households getting displaced.

This year, the country has already borne the brunt of Cyclone Jude, with Dodma indicating that the rains it induced affected 3,600 people in the Southern Region, with three people reported missing. Later, it said bodies of two of the missing people had been found.

According to Nsanje District Council spokesperson Robert Nayeja, searches led to the recovery of the bodies of Joe Tisowa, 26, and 11-year-old Chifundo Patrick.

 

Thirteen Southern Region districts were affected by the cyclone, according to Dodma Commissioner Charles Kalemba, who indicated that the three people went missing after a canoe they were sailing in capsized in Ruo River.

The affected councils were Mulanje, Chikwawa, Thyolo, Zomba City, Phalombe, Neno, Mwanza and Mangochi.

Surprisingly, Mangochi was the hardest hit, with 1,421 households affected in areas under Traditional Authority (TA) Chowe and Sub-TA Moto. In TAs Nsabwe and Nsabwe in Thyolo District, 849 people were affected.

A Chikwawa District Council report indicates that three houses collapsed in TA Mulilima’s area whereas a Zomba City report indicates that 19 households (approximately 86 people) have been affected.

Dodma also indicates that apart from 774 people that are reported to have been affected in TA Nkanda, the council received reports of damage from TA Njema and Sunganinzeru.

In Neno, about 410 people were affected in TA Dambe and Chekucheku, with most roads being rendered impassable.

In fact, in Neno District, residents had no electricity for three consecutive days following the collapsing of electric poles due to heavy rains and strong winds.

On its part, the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (Met) has indicated that the cyclone made landfall in Malawi through Phalombe District.

The department’s director Dr Lucy Mtilatila indicates that "The storm reduced its intensity when it was approaching Malawi”.

Already, non-governmental organisations such as Care Malawi have activated their Jude Crisis Modifier initiatives, under which it is providing a cash caution of K70,000 each and other relief items to those affected by disaster.

Care Malawi Humanitarian Assistance Programme Manager Burnet Khulumbo indicates that they want to ease the suffering of people who have been affected by natural phenomena.

“Care Malawi [also] issued cash to people who were affected by drought, which affected crops in Mangochi and some parts of the country during the last farming seasons,” he indicates.

Under the drought response project, Care Malawi and its partners are providing K92, 500 each to over 15,000 households that were affected by drought last year.

“The money will be paid for three months, starting from this month [March],” he says.

The Malawi Red Cross Society has joined the efforts.

 

Life in climate-change dictated world

According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), which issued the ‘State of the Global Climate’ report in Geneva on March 19, 2025, key climate indicators reached record levels last year, with long-term warming remaining below 1.5 degrees Celsius, sea-level rise and ocean warning remaining “irreversible” for hundreds of years, among other things.

It also indicates that “record” greenhouse gas concentrations combined with El Niño and other factors driving record hit during the year in question.

The report further shows that “globally, each of the past 10 years were individually the warmest. Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are at the highest levels in the last 800,000 years”.

It cites early warnings and the provision of timely climate services as key to “protecting communities and economies”.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has since called for requisite action.

"Our planet is issuing more distress signals—but this report shows that limiting long-term global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius is still possible. Leaders must step up to make it happen—seizing the benefits of cheap, clean renewables for their people and economies— with new national climate plans due this year." 

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo echoes the sentiments.

“While a single year above 1.5 °C of warming does not indicate that the long-term temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are out of reach, it is a wake-up call that we are increasing the risks to our lives, economies and to the planet.”

For Malawi, taking requisite action started with the recognition that, perhaps, some things were not being done the proper way. 

One of the activities that have been taking place is the creation of national anticipatory action dialogue platforms. The first meeting took place almost two years ago, with the second one taking place last year.

Such meetings attract government officials, humanitarian actors, Malawi’s development partners, researchers and members of community-based organisations and are premised on enhancing collaboration and deepening understanding of anticipatory action initiatives.

So far, a Multi-Sector Malawi Anticipatory Action Roadmap, one that aligns with the country's commitment to climate responses, has been formed and some actors are already implementing activities listed in it.

Speaking at the meeting that was held in November last year, Dodma Deputy Director responsible for preparedness Fedson Chikuse pointed out that before Cyclone Freddy and last year’s El-Nino spate, Malawians lacked anticipatory actions, hence natural phenomena’s impacts were devastating on communities.

"Anticipatory action offers a powerful pathway to mitigate these impacts. By acting early, lives can be protected, livelihoods safeguarded and emergency response costs reduced," Chikuse points out.

It is an idea the Malawi Red Cross Society is advancing. Its secretary general Chifundo

Kalulu acknowledges that prioritising anticipatory action and disaster preparedness can help Malawi minimise the devastating impacts of disasters and promote resilience among community members. 

He says putting in place such a mechanism “is not merely a matter of policy; it is a matter of survival, particularly in the face of escalating climate risks and other challenges" that are affecting Malawi and other countries.

In February this year, Dodma Principal Disaster Preparedness Officer Edwin Zawanda singled out anticipatory humanitarian action as a viable long-term strategy for mitigating the impacts of perennial floods, including problems such as loss of lives and property.

He said this in Chikwawa District during a co-design workshop for the Anticipatory Action Project, which Eagles Relief is implementing in Chikwawa District while Church Aid in Relief and Development is implementing in Nsanje District.

Both districts are prone to floods.

Zawanda adds that apart from taking anticipatory action, there are other mechanisms employed to ensure that people remain safe from disasters, natural or otherwise.

"In fact, in Nsanje and Chikwawa, we moved people from disaster-prone areas to upper areas. Not only that, we are taking steps to sensitise community members, in terms of disaster preparedness.

"In addition to such actions, the new Disaster Risk Management Act empowers Dodma to make sure that people move from disaster-prone areas to areas where they will be safe. As for those who are sticking to such areas, there are regulations that ensure that they move from such areas," Zawanda points out.

Meanwhile, Eagles Relief Programmes Officer Trywell Khonje has described anticipatory action as a significant short to medium-term strategic plan of minimising the impact of floods in vulnerable areas.

He explains that the framework, which is a new concept in Malawi, will enable community members to develop tailored disaster-preparedness interventions.
“Local community members will, among other things, facilitate the process of identifying potential actions to implement between the time an early warning message is received and the onset of a disaster in communities.

“What happens is that between the time an early warning has been issued and time of disaster, the period in-between is ideal for anticipatory action. We have anticipatory action at district level, contained in the district contingency plan. Common anticipatory actions include cash transfers to households; strengthening of structures, including providing black plastic material; and, in extreme situations, promoting the early harvesting of crops,” Khonje says.

“However, in cases of floods, you are very limited, in terms of anticipatory actions, because you have very few days during which to take action. It must be noted that [anticipatory action] is implemented if we have 85 percent probability of disaster,” he adds.

To make matters worse for Malawi, Lake Malawi levels have been rising in the past two years, with some hospitality industry players in the lakeshore district of Mangochi bearing the brunt.

Now, after finding an opportunity in gaps that have been identified when implementing activities in anticipation of floods, Nankhumwa has devised a solution, namely the introduction of a floods alarm in Likangala River.

With it, he hopes that climate change-induced problems such as floods will no longer weigh down on his voice—and body.